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Rising fast: A customer counts US$100 (RM450)notes inside a foreign currency exchange bureau in Turkiye. The Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes have propelled the dollar to its strongest level in decades against many of the world’s major currencies. — Bloomberg

THE dollar has risen too far, too fast for many countries.

And the world’s two largest holders of dollars may soon sell some of their US$4.35 trillion (RM19.55 trillion) stash of foreign currency reserves – finally pushing back against a year of relentless and potentially inflationary dollar gains.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive interest rate hikes have propelled the dollar to its strongest level in decades against many of the world’s major currencies – widening a US interest rate gap with rest of the world, particularly Asia.

China’s yuan has fallen to a two-year low near seven per dollar, and the Japanese yen hit a 24-year low near 145 yen per dollar.

The yen’s fall – 20% this year and 30% since the beginning of last year – is staggering for a Group of Three currency.

Some Asian countries, like India and Indonesia, have dipped their toes into the foreign exchange (forex) market this year, intervening to sell dollars and prop up their currencies.

But if China and Japan refuse to use interest rates to match Fed hawkishness and act directly, they may have to resort to forceful currency market intervention – with possible ripple effects across global markets.

They are major holders of US Treasuries and bills, so US fixed income markets could become more volatile.




Other Asian exchange rates could also swing abruptly if central banks in the region feel forced to follow suit.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) hold foreign currency reserves worth US$3.055 trillion (RM13.73 trillion) and US$1.29 trillion (RM5.8 trillion), respectively. Combined, that is a third of the world’s entire forex reserves pile of around US$12.5 trillion (RM56.42 trillion).

Neither Japan or China has intervened in the forex market selling or buying dollars outright for years, at least not directly, or officially.

China manages its exchange rate by fixing the yuan on a daily basis within a given, narrow range.

Their return would pack a punch.

Brad Setser, senior fellow at the council on foreign relations, and former Treasury official, says direct intervention is a “distinct possibility” that market are becoming increasingly attentive to.

“Other Asian countries have sold forex reserves this year. But Japan and China would be far more significant,” he said, adding: “Japan and China are big enough for future moves in the yuan and the yen to affect the dollar’s broader value. There could be additional pressure on other Asian currencies as well.”

Asia’s two economic and financial powerhouses are coming from different starting points – Japan’s yen is free-floating, China’s yuan isn’t; China is easing monetary policy more than Japan – but they may reach the same conclusion: they have to prop up their exchange rates.

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